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Stars
FTTH rollout in Belgium
Proximus sits in the Stars quadrant as Belgium’s FTTH rollout combines high market share with a still-ramping fiber market; by end-2024 Proximus had passed over 2 million homes and leads network build, prioritizing premium addresses. The rollout gulps capex — annual fiber investment ran into the high hundreds of millions EUR in 2024 — but delivers clear payoff via ARPU uplift (mid-teens percentage on fiber customers) and lower churn. Management is keeping the foot on the gas to cement leadership before growth normalizes and returns on incremental build stabilize.
5G mobile plans and enterprise 5G
Belgium 5G adoption is accelerating, with 5G subscriptions surpassing 25% of mobile lines in 2024 and nationwide traffic rising sharply; Proximus holds pole position on coverage and latency SLAs. Consumer upgrades and enterprise 5G use-cases (private networks, Industry 4.0, fixed wireless access) are expanding, driving ARPU upside. Network capex remains elevated (~€0.9bn run-rate in 2024) but is offset by data monetization and B2B contracts; continued investment is needed to turn the early lead into lasting share.
Convergent bundles (mobile + internet + TV)
Bundle penetration in Belgium exceeded 65% in 2024 as households trade up to richer mobile+internet+TV packages. Proximus holds roughly 2.7 million convergent customers and cross-sell rates continue to grow, lifting blended ARPU despite promo pressure. Promotion and content costs remain material, but lower churn from bundles offsets margin drag. Sustain the commercial push now to secure tomorrow’s cash cow.
Managed ICT and cloud connectivity for enterprises
Digital transformation in Belgium’s public and private sectors accelerated in 2024, driving demand for managed ICT and cloud connectivity where Proximus has the credibility, national footprint, and long‑standing relationships to win sizable, sticky contracts; projects are delivery‑intensive but high‑retention. Keep scaling solutions and partnerships to ride the wave.
- 2024 demand: accelerating public/private digital projects
- Proximus strengths: credibility, footprint, relationships
- Project traits: sizable, sticky, resource‑hungry — scale partnerships
IoT and smart solutions on Proximus networks
IoT and smart solutions on Proximus networks are accelerating with growing IoT connections, fleet and asset tracking deployments, and multiple smart city pilots leveraging Proximus’s network control and trusted local presence. Upfront solutioning and integrations raise initial costs but lifetime value and recurring connectivity revenues are strong, so invest to secure reference wins and expand vertically.
- IoT connections: scalable connectivity and managed services
- Fleet/asset tracking: high recurring ARPU from telemetry and SaaS
- Smart city pilots: local presence speeds approvals and scale
FTTH >2M homes, 5G >25% and convergent bundles powering steady growth
Proximus sits in Stars: FTTH passed >2.0M homes (end‑2024) with mid‑teens ARPU uplift and lower churn; 5G >25% of mobile lines (2024) boosting data monetization. Convergent base ~2.7M, bundle penetration >65%, network capex ~€0.9bn run‑rate (2024) to cement leadership while growth normalizes.
| Metric | 2024 |
|---|---|
| FTTH homes passed | >2.0M |
| Convergent customers | 2.7M |
| Bundle penetration | >65% |
| 5G share | >25% |
| Network capex | ~€0.9bn |
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Cash Cows
Mobile postpaid base (consumer)
Proximus consumer mobile postpaid is a cash cow in a mature Belgian market, holding just over 40% market share in 2024 and delivering a stable postpaid ARPU of about €28 in 2024. Lower incremental acquisition costs versus prior years and high retention make it a predictable revenue stream. It generates strong free cash flow to fund growth bets. Strategy: maintain quality, limit promotional activity, and milk stability.
Fixed broadband subscriptions
Proximus supports about 2.3 million fixed broadband accesses (2023 annual report), providing a large installed base and steady demand. Upgrades to higher tiers increase ARPU while overall Belgian household broadband growth is modest and near saturation. Opex and churn remain controllable, so optimizing pricing and reducing service costs will maximize cash generation.
Pay-TV service within bundles
TV penetration in Belgium remained solid in 2024 at roughly 70% of households with limited category growth, positioning pay-TV as a stable cash cow. Proximus reported about 1.3 million TV subscribers in 2024, with meaningful share concentrated in triple/quad-play bundles that drive ARPU and retention. Content costs are the primary swing factor but become more predictable at scale, with rights amortization smoothing margins. Maintain packaging value and customer stickiness while holding the line on incremental content spend to protect cash flow.
Enterprise connectivity (MPLS/VPN, Ethernet)
Core B2B pipes (MPLS/VPN, Ethernet) are contract-heavy and sticky; Proximus reported group revenue around EUR 4.8bn in 2023, with Enterprise a significant, stable contributor—growth is flat but margins are healthy when SLAs and costs are managed.
Low incremental capex versus new builds enables cash harvesting: defend accounts, upsell premium SLAs and value-added services to sustain EBITDA contribution and free cash flow.
- Stickiness: long-term contracts, low churn
- Growth: flat demand, stable ARPU
- Margins: healthy if operationalized
- Capex: low incremental vs greenfield
- Strategy: defend, upsell SLAs, harvest cash
Wholesale access on legacy networks
Wholesale access on legacy networks is a cash cow for Proximus, delivering multi-hundred-million-euro, predictable revenues under incumbent advantage and BIPT-regulated pricing; the Belgian fixed market is mature with limited growth upside. Cash flow remains reliable if service levels and cost discipline are maintained to preserve high yields.
- Incumbent advantage
- Regulated pricing (BIPT)
- Predictable cash flows
- Maintain service & cost discipline
Mobile postpaid >40%, ARPU ≈€28; broadband 2.3m, TV 1.3m
Proximus cash cows: mobile postpaid >40% share (2024) with ARPU ≈€28 and high retention; fixed broadband 2.3m accesses (2023) with modest upsell; TV ~1.3m subs (2024) tied to bundles; wholesale legacy delivers multi-hundred-million, regulated, predictable cash flows.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Postpaid share (2024) | >40% |
| Postpaid ARPU (2024) | ≈€28 |
| Broadband accesses (2023) | 2.3m |
| TV subs (2024) | ≈1.3m |
| Wholesale revenue | multi-hundred-million |
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Dogs
Legacy PSTN/ISDN fixed voice
Legacy PSTN/ISDN fixed voice shows structural decline as customers rapidly migrate to VoIP and mobile; market growth is negative and share relevance is fading. Revenue barely covers the operational and maintenance complexity, eroding margins and tying up capex. Accelerate sunset of PSTN/ISDN and redeploy costs and workforce into fiber, VoIP, and 5G services to maximize ROI.
Prepaid-only consumer mobile
Prepaid-only consumer mobile is a shrinking segment as customers migrate to postpaid bundles; prepaid ARPU is around €10–15 versus €30–40 for postpaid, with churn rates materially higher and limited cross-sell potential. Effort to serve (~customer acquisition, SIM distribution, low-margin support) outweighs returns. Minimize focus, retain only an essential footprint for churn-prone, low-ARPU users.
Copper-based DSL access
Copper-based DSL is being displaced by fiber and cable—Belgium fiber penetration reached about 50% in 2024—eroding performance perceptions, retention and pricing power for Proximus. Higher fault rates and legacy upkeep mean maintenance can consume roughly a fifth of access opex and technician capacity. Decommission where feasible and accelerate migrations to fiber to cut opex and protect ARPU, targeting full copper phase-out by 2030.
Legacy on-prem PBX maintenance
Legacy on-prem PBX maintenance is a Dogs quadrant asset as enterprises rapidly shift to cloud communications; Gartner reported UCaaS revenue growth near 12% in 2024 while on-prem PBX spending contracted, eroding support revenues as fixed maintenance costs persist. Market share versus cloud-first vendors is low and declining, prompting a controlled wind-down and migration incentives to steer clients to modern UCaaS and CCaaS alternatives.
- 2024 UCaaS growth ~12% (Gartner)
- Support revenue drip vs. persistent maintenance cost
- Low share vs. cloud-first competitors
- Action: wind down, migrate clients to UCaaS/CCaaS
Standalone SMS and voice add-ons
Standalone SMS and voice add-ons sit in Dogs: OTT apps like WhatsApp (≈2.24 billion MAU in 2024) and bundled services have hollowed out demand, leaving little pricing leverage. Proximus saw these remnants contribute under 1% of service revenue in 2024, with year‑on‑year cash inflows declining. Simplify offers and phase them out to stop margin erosion.
- OTT dominance: WhatsApp ~2.24bn MAU (2024)
- Pricing leverage: minimal
- Cash impact: <1% of service revenue (2024)
- Action: simplify offers, phase out remnants
Wind down PSTN & prepaid — migrate to UCaaS; fiber ~50%, UCaaS +12%
Legacy PSTN/ISDN, prepaid mobile, copper DSL, on‑prem PBX and standalone SMS are Dogs: negative growth or shrinking share (PSTN/ISDN sunset), prepaid ARPU €10–15 vs postpaid €30–40, Belgium fiber ~50% penetration (2024), UCaaS growth ~12% (2024), OTT WhatsApp ~2.24bn MAU; action: wind down, migrate, simplify.
| Metric | 2024 |
|---|---|
| Fiber penetration | ~50% |
| Prepaid ARPU | €10–15 |
| Postpaid ARPU | €30–40 |
| UCaaS growth | ~12% |
| WhatsApp MAU | ~2.24bn |
Question Marks
Private 5G networks (campus)
Private 5G campus networks are a high-growth niche attracting industrial and logistics buyers but market share is not locked; Gartner forecasts 25% of enterprises will have private 5G by 2026, underscoring near-term demand. Success needs solution sales, partner ecosystems and spectrum strategy; Proximus must fund deployments today but can convert cash-hungry Question Marks into Stars tomorrow by selective investment around flagship verticals.
Cybersecurity managed services
Demand for cybersecurity managed services is booming—global cybersecurity spending reached about $188.3B in 2024 and the managed security services segment was roughly $39B—yet the market is crowded with global players. Proximus can leverage trust and local data-residency advantages, but scale is not proven and sales cycles commonly run 6–12 months. With a 2024 global cyber workforce gap of ~3.4M and rising talent costs, lean in where clear differentiation exists and exit me-too offers.
Cloud and edge services beyond connectivity
Workloads are racing to cloud and edge, with Gartner estimating global public cloud services at roughly 597 billion USD in 2024 and edge deployments accelerating across telecom customers; Proximus’s role above the network layer remains nascent. High solutioning costs and uncertain win rates keep this in the Question Marks quadrant. Strategy: double down on hyperscaler alliances and pursue targeted, high-ROI use-cases to convert to Stars.
International ICT subsidiaries
Proximus has growth outside Belgium but no dominant foreign share; its Belgian fixed broadband share was about 40% in 2024, while international subsidiaries remained a minority of group revenue (around 10% in 2024), raising integration, brand and focus questions.
Cash burn can creep if spread too thin; invest only where scale and synergies are provable to avoid margin dilution.
- Tag: international
- Tag: market-share ~40% BE (2024)
- Tag: int-rev ~10% (2024)
- Tag: focus-on-scale-synergies
OTT/streaming-first TV experiences
Consumer shift to OTT is clear: global SVOD subscriptions surpassed 1.5 billion in 2024, but the field is crowded by Netflix, Disney+, Amazon and regional players, compressing unique share for Proximus. Proximus can bundle and aggregate third-party apps, yet proprietary share remains uncertain and content/product spend can balloon quickly. Prioritize pilots with partner deals and scale only when unit economics (LTV/CAC >1.5x) are validated.
- Market scale: global SVOD ~1.5B (2024)
- Strategy: bundle + aggregator
- Risk: content/product cost inflation
- Execution: test, partner, scale on clear unit economics
Selectively invest in private 5G, MSS, cloud - prove LTV/CAC before scaling
Question Marks: multiple high-growth opportunities (private 5G, managed security, cloud/edge, OTT, international) show strong 2024 demand but low share; selective investment needed to avoid cash burn and prove unit economics/scale before scaling to Stars. Prioritize vertical bets, hyperscaler/partner alliances and measurable KPIs (LTV/CAC, win rate, payback).
| Segment | 2024 metric | Priority |
|---|---|---|
| Private 5G | Gartner: 25% enterprises by 2026 | High |
| Cyber MSS | Global spend $188.3B; MSS ~$39B | High |
| Cloud/Edge | Public cloud $597B | Medium |
| OTT | SVOD >1.5B subs | Low |