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Stars
5G mobile (Vodafone) in high-growth segments
5G sits squarely in the Star quadrant as market growth surged in 2024 with Vodafone reporting group capex of about €5.8bn to densify networks and capture exploding usage. Strong share in dense metros and rapid device upgrades—5G handset take-up crossed roughly 60% in several European markets in 2024—keep Vodafone in the lead pack. Promotions and densification soak short-term cash, but sustained investment should tip the business toward Cash Cow status.
5G Home Internet (Fixed Wireless Access)
5G Home Internet (Fixed Wireless Access) is a Star for TPG: its holdings in mid‑band 3.5 GHz spectrum and existing cell sites give a clear runway to steal household broadband share from legacy fixed networks. Consumer migration to wireless accelerated in 2024, boosting uptake and ARPU as utilization rises. Scaling requires promo, technicians for installs and expanded support to convert trials into sticky revenue. Invest now to lock share before adoption plateaus.
MVNO wholesale on TPG’s mobile network
SIM-only and value MVNOs grew strongly through FY24, with dozens of brands riding TPG’s network and delivering meaningful share in the expanding low‑ARPU segment. That mix drives incremental volume and brand reach but requires ongoing commercial support and confirmed network capacity commitments. Continue signing partners and scaling wholesale terms — today’s MVNO growth funds tomorrow’s stability.
eSIM-first digital onboarding
eSIM-first digital onboarding is a Stars play for TPG in the BCG matrix: activations rose sharply, with eSIM activations up 52% year-over-year in 2024 as customers ditch plastic SIMs and stores; TPG brands push eSIM aggressively, capturing a solid share among digital-first users and delivering quick wins with lower friction and faster time-to-revenue.
- digital-share: strong among 18–35 segment
- conversion: needs app polish and targeted marketing
- ROI: worth spending now to cement leadership
Enterprise private 5G pilots
Industrial and campus 5G is nascent but fast-rising; 2024 forecasts show private 5G tracking toward ~40% CAGR and roughly $35B market by 2030, and TPG is already in the room with pilots.
Early campus wins can yield outsized share as the category matures; current deployments are reference-rich even if volume is modest today.
Heavy solutioning and partner-led rollouts drive near-term cash burn but produce brand, technical references and pipeline growth—keep backing it.
5G boom: operator capex ~€5.8bn, handset take-up ~60%
5G is a Star: Vodafone capex ~€5.8bn in 2024 and handset take-up ~60% in several EU markets. 5G Home Internet (3.5 GHz) has clear FWA upside for TPG. MVNO/SIM-only scale low-ARPU volume; eSIM activations +52% YoY in 2024 drives digital growth. Private/campus 5G is high-growth (≈40% CAGR to ~$35B by 2030) but needs upfront investment.
| Segment | 2024 metric | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| 5G | €5.8bn capex; ~60% handsets | Maintain investment |
| FWA | 3.5 GHz runway | Steal broadband share |
| eSIM | +52% activations | Lower churn |
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Cash Cows
NBN fixed-line broadband (TPG, iiNet, Internode)
NBN fixed-line broadband (TPG, iiNet, Internode) sits in a mature market with a big installed base — NBN Co reported about 11.8 million active retail services by mid-2024 — delivering dependable margins. Marketing is efficient; churn control and service discipline drive retention more than splashy advertising. The segment generates steady cash that funds growth bets across the group. Milk it while continuously trimming costs and CX friction to sustain cashflow.
4G mobile base on legacy plans
4G mobile on legacy plans shows stable usage and predictable ARPU (around A$25 monthly in FY24), with minimal subscriber growth. Low promotional spend and careful retention offers sustain high margins, converting steady revenue into free cash flow. Cash generation remains strong as 5G investments ramp, so strategy is maintain positions and avoid heavy reinvestment into declining 4G base.
National fiber/backhaul leases
Wholesale national fiber/backhaul leases are steady, contract-heavy revenue drivers for TPG in 2024, with typical lease tenors of 5–15 years and industry EBITDA margins near 35–50%, making them margin-friendly. Not a growth rocket, but scale and utilization (target >80%) convert dark fiber assets into predictable cash. Capex is largely sunk, so incremental returns on additional utilization often exceed corporate hurdle rates. Maintain high utilization and tight SLAs to protect cash flow.
Business voice and SIP trunking
Business voice is a mature cash cow: installed SIP trunking accounted for roughly USD 1.9B of market revenue in 2024 and supplies steady, high-margin cash flow from sticky contracts and low churn. Growth is limited but predictable, sales effort is light relative to returns, so focus on maintaining service quality and smart bundling to defend ARPU.
- Stable revenue: SIP drives recurring margins
- Low growth: market near maturity
- High retention: sticky contracts, low churn
- Operational focus: quality + smart bundles
Managed internet for SMEs
Managed internet for SMEs is a steady cash cow: low market growth but strong share via TPG multi-brand reach; SMEs represent about 99% of EU businesses (2024), keeping base demand stable. Efficient support and billing flow directly to EBITDA; keep packaging simple and margins clean to preserve cash generation.
- Low growth / high share
- Support & billing = margin lever
- Simple packs, predictable churn
Steady high-margin cash: NBN, 4G, fiber & SIP - focus on costs, CX and >80% utilization
NBN fixed-line, legacy 4G, wholesale fiber, business SIP and SME managed internet produce steady, high-margin cash for TPG: NBN ~11.8M RSPs (mid-2024); 4G ARPU ~A$25 (FY24); fiber leases EBITDA 35–50%; SIP market ~USD1.9B (2024). Priorities: cost control, CX, utilization >80% and defend sticky contracts.
| Asset | Metric (2024) |
|---|---|
| NBN | 11.8M RSPs |
| 4G | ARPU A$25 |
| Fiber | EBITDA 35–50% |
| SIP | USD1.9B |
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Dogs
ADSL/copper broadband
ADSL/copper is a declining, low-relevance segment for TPG as migration to NBN reached about 12.7 million premises passed with ~11.9 million retail services by June 2024 (NBN Co), leaving legacy copper as a shrinking base. Any turnaround spend is wasted—migration economics beat revival. It ties up ops and support for little return; sunset quickly and migrate customers to higher-yield plans.
Standalone PSTN home phone
Standalone PSTN home phone is a low-growth, low-share TPG product as Australia’s fixed-line voice services fell to about 3.7 million connections in 2023 (ACMA), reflecting mass consumer migration to mobile/VoIP. It will be break-even at best after ongoing support, creating a cash-trap where continued operational effort yields minimal revenue. Strategic action: retire or keep only as a convenience bundle add-on for legacy customers.
Legacy email hosting (iiNet/Internode mailboxes)
Legacy email hosting (iiNet/Internode mailboxes) sits in Dogs: no growth, minimal strategic value, and support-heavy—customers overwhelmingly prefer Gmail/Outlook; there were about 4.3 billion email users worldwide in 2023 (Radicati). It drags NPS and raises operating support costs. Recommend decommission or introduce a small annual fee, then migrate remaining customers to modern providers.
Physical retail kiosks for basic sales
Physical retail kiosks for basic sales are dogs: foot traffic is down ~25% versus 2019 (Placer.ai) and US e-commerce reached about 18% of retail sales in 2024, leaving kiosks with low share and low growth. Fixed costs (rent, staffing) persist while transactions shift online, so turnaround capex is unlikely to pay back within acceptable horizons. Consolidate or exit underperforming locations and redirect budget to digital channels and fulfillment.
International calling card offers
Dogs:
International calling card offers
OTT apps (WhatsApp ~2+ billion users) have largely eliminated the use case; sales and margins are negligible and shrinking, leaving calling-card SKUs and support as dead weight. Low market share and falling demand make further investment unjustified; wind down programs to free up marketing and product focus for growth areas. Operationally, reallocate budget and close retail SKUs.
Sunset legacy: retire ADSL, PSTN, email & kiosks — consolidate services, reallocate spend
ADSL/copper, PSTN, legacy email, retail kiosks and calling cards are Dogs: low share, declining demand and support-heavy—NBN passed ~12.7M premises (11.9M retail services Jun 2024), fixed-line ~3.7M (2023), email users 4.3B (2023), foot traffic -25% vs 2019, e‑commerce ~18% (2024), WhatsApp ~2B users; recommend sunset/consolidate and reallocate spend.
| Category | Metric | 2023/24 | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADSL/copper | Premises passed / retail | 12.7M / 11.9M | Sunset, migrate |
| PSTN | Fixed-line connections | 3.7M | Retire/keep bundle |
| Global users | 4.3B | Decommission/fee | |
| Kiosks | Foot traffic / e‑commerce | -25% vs 2019 / 18% | Consolidate/exit |
| Calling cards | OTT displacement | WhatsApp ~2B | Wind down |
Question Marks
IoT/M2M connectivity
IoT/M2M connectivity sits in Question Marks: vertical demand in utilities, transport and asset tracking is growing rapidly—global IoT connections reached about 15 billion in 2024—yet TPG’s share is still forming. The business needs deeper platform capabilities, channel reach and vertical-tailored solutions to raise ARPU. It burns cash today but could flip to a Star with targeted partnerships and selective investments where device density and ARPU stack. Invest selectively in high-density clusters and enterprise contracts.
Private 5G + edge compute bundles
Private 5G plus edge compute sits in Question Marks: a hot market with MarketsandMarkets estimating the private 5G market at about $4.95B in 2024 and edge deployments growing alongside, yet few scaled rollouts mean market share is up for grabs. Success requires ecosystem plays and solution selling with system integrators and cloud partners; demand is high on paper but returns stay low until reference deployments land. TPG must either double down in targeted verticals (manufacturing, ports, healthcare) with focused capex and partner commitments or pause—no halfway house.
Fixed-mobile convergence (one-bill family bundles)
Customers want simplicity, yet TPG’s fixed-mobile bundle share trails incumbents who together held roughly 70% of household bundles in 2024, leaving TPG in a distant challenger position. Growth is real if pricing and perks click — targeted price cuts and exclusive content could convert higher-value households. Heavy promo and product work will be needed to lift adoption and reduce churn. TPG must either invest to win households or simplify and move on.
Regional 5G expansion via partnerships
Regional 5G demand is rising—5G connections surpassed 1 billion globally in 2024 (GSMA)—yet TPG’s regional market share remains patchy; partnership-led coverage can unlock scale but unit economics are delicate, with meaningful upfront network and site integration spend and uncertain payback; pilot to prove per-site ARPU and payback, then scale fast or stop.
- Validate: pilot 10–50 sites to prove unit economics
- Metrics: target payback <36 months or IRR threshold
- Structure: revenue-share or capex-split partnerships
- Exit: scale only if pilot meets ARPU and churn targets
Security and SD-WAN upsell to mid-market
Security and SD-WAN upsell to mid-market sits in a high-growth category (~20% CAGR 2024–29 per industry consensus) while TPG’s share remains modest (estimated 5–10%). The business needs stronger vendor alliances, targeted sales enablement, and packaged outcomes to raise attach rates; cash-out is viable now given a steep learning curve and investment horizon. If attach rates rise materially this becomes a Star; if not, trim.
Flip IoT, Private 5G & Security from Question Marks to Stars with targeted pilots
Question Marks: multiple high-growth adjacencies (IoT 15B connections 2024, private 5G $4.95B 2024, 5G >1B connections 2024) with low TPG share; selective pilots, partner-led capex and vertical focus can flip winners to Stars, otherwise trim.
| Segment | 2024 size | TPG share | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| IoT/M2M | 15B conn | forming | pilot verticals |
| Private 5G | $4.95B | low | partner+refs |
| Security/SD-WAN | ~20% CAGR | 5–10% | bundle/trim |