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Stars
5G mobile leadership in Nordics
High market share and rapid 5G adoption put Telia out front in the Nordics, serving roughly 20 million customers across the region and rolling 5G since 2019. Growth is fueled by device upgrades and expanding enterprise 5G use-cases, lifting premium ARPU versus legacy mobile. The roll-out soaks up capex now but locks in higher lifetime value. Continue investing to hold the lead and let 5G mature into a cash cow.
Fiber-to-the-home in Baltics
Urban FTTH build-outs in the Baltics are accelerating and demand climbed through 2024; Telia’s footprint—about 1.1 million homes passed in the region by end-2024—drives high take-up and sticky subscribers with ARPU expansion from successful upsell. Cash burn remains during rollout as 2024 capex peaked, but churn stayed low (<10% annualized in fixed broadband cohorts) and upsell to higher-speed tiers materially lifts margin. Stay the course: prioritize coverage and speed differentiation to convert scale into long-term cash flow.
Enterprise IoT & private networks
Factories, ports and logistics deployments scaled in 2024, driving rapid growth in Telia’s Enterprise IoT and private networks segment; Telia’s spectrum holdings, SLA-backed offers and system integration muscle have won a growing number of RFPs. Revenues rose quickly in 2024 but margins require heavy solution and professional-services support. Management should double down on vertical playbooks to sustain momentum and improve project margins.
Fixed wireless access (5G FWA)
5G FWA is exploding in select markets, offering high-speed broadband without digging and delivering typical download speeds of 100–300 Mbps in 2024 tests. Network capacity and pricing flexibility drive rapid uptake but consume spectrum and marketing dollars now. Telia’s play: land-grab first, optimize unit economics second.
- Spectrum and marketing-heavy
- Short-term unit-economics pressure
- High ARPU potential; 2024 median throughput ~150 Mbps
Premium converged bundles (mobile + broadband + TV)
Premium converged bundles are Stars for Telia: multi-play stickiness in Sweden and neighboring markets topped 50% household penetration in 2024, supporting solid growth as families consolidate bills. Telia’s strong brand and nationwide network let it price for value and cut churn; focus on sweetened bundles can defend share and lift ARPU.
- High stickiness: >50% multi-play penetration (2024)
- Churn reduction: brand+network premium pricing
- Growth: household consolidation driving revenue
- Strategy: enhance bundles to protect share, expand ARPU
Leading 5G: ~20m mobile users, FTTH ~1.1m homes, 5G FWA median ~150 Mbps
Telia Stars: leading 5G with ~20m customers and rolling 5G since 2019, driving premium ARPU via device upgrades; urban FTTH passed ~1.1m homes by end-2024 with <10% broadband cohort churn; Enterprise IoT/private networks scaled in 2024 but margins need vertical playbooks; 5G FWA median throughput ~150 Mbps (100–300 Mbps range) and >50% multi-play penetration in 2024.
| Metric | 2024 |
|---|---|
| Customers (mobile) | ~20m |
| Homes passed (FTTH Baltics) | ~1.1m |
| Fixed broadband churn | <10% ann. |
| 5G FWA median throughput | ~150 Mbps |
| Multi-play penetration | >50% |
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Cash Cows
Mass-market 4G mobile in mature segments
Market growth for mass-market 4G is flat in 2024, yet Telia holds about 34% share in Sweden and ~20.4m mobile subscriptions group-wide, generating steady cash from predictable usage and pricing. Low incremental marketing spend keeps EBITDA margins elevated on these plans. Strategy: milk 4G while migrating heavy users to 5G upsells to protect cash flow and fund network investment.
Fixed broadband in mature Nordic footprints
Fixed broadband in mature Nordic footprints shows household penetration above 90% (Eurostat 2024), signaling market saturation. Churn is manageable and operations are efficient, with infrastructure largely in maintenance rather than build mode. Strong cash flow from fixed services funds the wider portfolio. Optimizing CPE and service costs can materially widen margins.
Wholesale and MVNO access
Wholesale and MVNO access remains a cash cow for Telia in 2024: existing network scale meets steady wholesale buyer demand, delivering high utilization and low growth yet reliable cash generation. Long-term access contracts smooth revenue and cut volatility, underpinning margin resilience. Maintain contractual terms, avoid price wars and keep capacity disciplined to preserve yield and utilization.
SMB connectivity (mobile + fixed)
SMB connectivity (mobile + fixed) is a cash cow for Telia in 2024, delivering dependable EBITDA margins around 30% with simple plans and low-touch operations that keep unit costs down and ARPU stable.
Growth is modest—single-digit revenue expansion—while upsell potential exists via add-ons and managed services; churn is controlled near 1.5% monthly through bundles and SLA-backed support.
Operational focus remains on efficiency: standardized offerings, automated provisioning and minimal custom engineering to protect margin and cash generation.
- segment: SMB connectivity
- margins: ~30% (2024)
- churn: ~1.5% monthly (2024)
- growth: modest, single-digit (2024)
- strategy: simple plans, low touch, efficiency
International carrier services
International carrier services are classic cash cows for Telia: backbone traffic is stable with backbone utilization consistently high, generating solid cash conversion despite modest margins; Telia’s 2024 reported capex-to-revenue ratio remained contained around industry-average levels, keeping reinvestment needs limited.
Protecting volume depends on reliability, SLAs and sharply optimized routing to minimize churn and preserve steady free cash flow for the group.
- Stable demand: backbone utilization high in 2024
- Margins: modest but cash conversion strong
- Capex: limited, low capex-to-revenue in 2024
- Priority: reliability, SLAs, sharp routing to protect volume
Nordic cash engines: 4G, broadband and SMB deliver steady, high-margin cash flow
Telia cash cows in 2024: mass-market 4G (34% Sweden share, 20.4m subs) and fixed broadband (Nordic household penetration >90%) generate steady cash with low incremental spend; SMB connectivity posts ~30% EBITDA, ~1.5% monthly churn and single-digit growth; wholesale/MVNO and carrier services show high utilization, stable volumes and strong cash conversion with contained capex (~10% revenue).
| Segment | 2024 metric | note |
|---|---|---|
| 4G mass-market | 34% Sweden; 20.4m subs | stable cash |
| Fixed broadband | >90% Nordic penetration | saturated, high margins |
| SMB | ~30% EBITDA; 1.5% churn | low-touch |
| Wholesale/carrier | high utilization; capex ~10% | reliable cash |
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Dogs
Legacy fixed-line voice (PSTN)
Usage is shrinking fast and maintenance drag is high: Telia’s legacy PSTN customer base fell sharply, with fixed voice revenues shrinking to under 3% of group revenue by 2024, while upkeep and fault costs remain disproportionately high.
Revenues barely cover the headache, driving negative margins on legacy lines; capital and attention are better spent on fiber, mobile and cloud where growth and ARPU are materially higher.
Accelerate migration and tighten sunset timelines: prioritize automated customer migrations, cut maintenance opex, and set firm decommission dates to free capital for high-growth segments.
Copper broadband (DSL)
Copper DSL delivers low speeds (often under 30 Mbps) while faults and customer complaints have risen; Telia faces churn as the market shifted to fiber and 5G. By 2024 fiber adoption exceeded about 70% of Swedish households and 5G population coverage surpassed 90%, squeezing DSL volumes. Keeping copper alive traps maintenance cash and capex; decommission with a phased customer migration plan to fiber/5G to avoid service gaps.
Standalone linear TV packages
Cord-cutting continues to bite and content costs remain elevated; global pay-TV lost over 20 million subscribers from 2020–2023, pressuring margins in 2024. Telia's linear-TV share is low and declining, with consumer TV revenues contracting year-on-year and returns thin. Rationalize channel lineups, reduce carriage fees and pivot to app-first bundles and AVOD/SVOD partnerships to preserve ARPU.
Legacy SMS/messaging revenues
Legacy SMS/messaging is a Dog for Telia: OTT apps have captured consumer chat and pricing pressure persists; SMS now serves transactional 2FA and service alerts only, with volumes too low to warrant major investment.
On-prem PBX hardware support
On-prem PBX hardware support is a Dog in Telia's BCG matrix: cloud voice adoption exceeded 50% of enterprise voice deployments by 2024, shrinking demand for legacy boxes. Support gigs are lumpy and margins compressed as unit servicing falls and parts costs rise. With low growth and a small share of Telia's voice revenue, recommend exit or aggressive bundle migrations with incentives and fast timelines.
- Market: cloud voice >50% (2024)
- Profitability: lumpy support, squeezed margins
- Strategy: exit or bundle migration incentives, fast
PSTN sunset, DSL→fiber push, cloud voice wins, linear TV margins under pressure
PSTN/fixed voice fell to under 3% of group revenue by 2024; maintenance costs remain high.
Fiber adoption >70% of Swedish households and 5G coverage >90% by 2024, compressing DSL volumes.
Cloud voice >50% of enterprise deployments (2024); on‑prem PBX demand is shrinking.
Pay‑TV weak; global pay‑TV lost >20M subs 2020–2023, pressuring linear-TV margins.
| Asset | 2024 metric | Action |
|---|---|---|
| PSTN | <3% rev | Sunset |
| DSL/Copper | Fiber >70% | Migrate |
| On‑prem PBX | Cloud >50% | Exit |
| Linear TV | Subs ↓ | Rationalize |
Question Marks
Cybersecurity managed services
Demand for cybersecurity managed services is surging with the global MSS market estimated around USD 40 billion in 2024 and a ~10% CAGR through the decade, yet Telia’s share remains small versus specialist vendors. Ticket sizes can rise materially with certifications like ISO 27001 and SOC 2 as trust builds. High talent costs and a global skills gap of ~3.4 million make this a capital-intensive bet. Invest where telco-network security gives a clear edge—or partner.
Edge computing/MEC for enterprises
Edge/MEC is a strong latency play for sub-10 ms apps; the global edge market exceeded $25B in 2024 with ~28% CAGR. Telia owns extensive Nordic networks and reported ~43 billion SEK in 2024 revenue, but lacks a developer ecosystem and clear use-cases. Cash out before cash in for now; pick anchor verticals—manufacturing, gaming, healthcare—and co-create lighthouse wins to prove value.
Advanced analytics and AI ops for B2B
Clients want insights tied to connectivity but buying patterns remain immature, with enterprise sales cycles typically running 6–18 months; potential expands sharply when solutions are packaged as outcome-based offers. Market demand for enterprise AI and analytics grew substantially in 2024, with global enterprise AI spend estimated above $200 billion, so test focused offers (SLAs, quantified savings) and scale what lands to accelerate adoption and ROI.
eSIM-based international plans
Travel demand has rebounded (UNWTO: international arrivals ~87% of 2019 in 2023) and eSIM adoption is rising, but competition from global eSIM aggregators and MVNOs is fierce; Telia’s strong Nordic/Baltic brand (~20m customers) helps regionally but lacks global scale. Unit economics will hinge on partner wholesale rates and customer acquisition costs, so pilot targeted corridors and iterate pricing and partner splits before scaling.
- Market: travel rebound (UNWTO 2023 ~87% of 2019)
- Brand: strong regionally (~20m Telia customers)
- Risk: intense global competition and partner-dependent margins
- Action: pilot corridors, refine pricing, optimize partner revenue shares
Smart home and device ecosystems
Households prefer bundled offerings, but device margins are thin and market outcomes fragmented; global smart home market size reached about 78 billion USD in 2024, highlighting scale but low per-device profitability.
Telia can win through convenience, end-to-end support and service bundling, though current share in smart home devices remains modest relative to core connectivity revenue.
Recommendation: curate a tight device lineup and tightly couple it with premium connectivity plans to drive ARPU and reduce support complexity.
- Bundle focus: increase ARPU
- Curated lineup: lower SKUs, improve margin
- Tie-to-plan: lift premium plan uptake
- Support-led: differentiate on service
Bet telco security + Edge: USD 40B, >USD 25B
Cybersecurity MSS: USD 40B market in 2024, ~10% CAGR; Telia small vs specialists—invest where telco security is differentiator or partner.
Edge/MEC: global >USD 25B in 2024, ~28% CAGR; Telia has Nordic network strength (43bn SEK revenue 2024) but needs developer ecosystem and anchor verticals.
Smart home, eSIM, enterprise AI show scale (smart home USD 78B, enterprise AI >USD 200B 2024); pilot focused offers, bundle to lift ARPU.
| Metric | 2024 |
|---|---|
| MSS market | USD 40B |
| Edge market | USD >25B |
| Telia rev | 43bn SEK |
| Smart home | USD 78B |