Eli Lilly Boston Consulting Group Matrix
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Eli Lilly’s BCG Matrix preview shows which drugs are driving growth and which might be holding you back — a quick lens on Stars, Cash Cows, Question Marks, and Dogs. Want the full picture? Purchase the complete BCG Matrix for quadrant-level placements, data-backed recommendations, and ready-to-use Word + Excel files to guide investment and portfolio decisions. Get instant clarity and skip the guesswork.
Stars
Mounjaro (tirzepatide) — T2D
Mounjaro (tirzepatide) is a BCG Star: runaway 2024 demand and a fat order book fuel massive share in injectable T2D/weight markets. Clinical and real-world data show up to 1.8–2.0% HbA1c reduction and SURMOUNT-1 weight loss to 22.5%, underpinning sustained uptake. Continued value depends on aggressive supply build-out and global rollout muscle to avoid shortages. Keep feeding it and it prints the next decade.
Zepbound (tirzepatide) — Obesity
Zepbound (tirzepatide) — approved by the FDA for chronic weight management on November 8, 2023 — has driven explosive category-defining demand and cultural momentum, quickly taking high share in a still-accelerating obesity market. Marketing, payer access negotiations, and rapid manufacturing scale-up require heavy ongoing investment to sustain growth and convert market lead into a long-term annuity.
Verzenio (abemaciclib) — HR+/HER2− breast cancer
Verzenio (abemaciclib) has strong guideline presence after FDA adjuvant approval in 2021 based on monarchE, and is endorsed in major guidelines such as NCCN and ESMO for HR+/HER2− high‑risk disease.
It is gaining share within the still‑growing CDK4/6 class versus competitors but requires continued confirmatory evidence and geographic label expansions to defend market position.
Ongoing investment in trials, real‑world evidence generation and global rollout is required to keep uptake and revenue trajectory rising.
Jardiance (empagliflozin) — cardio-renal-metabolic (alliance)
Category leader with broad labels and durable physician habit; alliance Jardiance recorded roughly $10 billion global sales in 2024 and continues double-digit volume growth across HF, CKD and T2D. Market still growing: SGLT2 class expected mid-to-high single-digit CAGR, driven by expanding HF/CKD indications and rising prescriptions. Co-promote economics improve with scale; keep flywheel spinning via outcomes readouts and access wins.
- leader
- ~$10B 2024 sales
- expanding HF/CKD/T2D labels
- co-promote economics scale
- focus on outcomes & access
Taltz (ixekizumab) — Immunology
Taltz (ixekizumab) remains a Star for Eli Lilly with leading share in psoriasis and axial spondyloarthritis and healthy new-start volumes in 2024; IL-17 biologics continue double-digit market growth as biologic penetration rises. Competitive landscape is intense but patient retention is high once responders achieve remission; focus on speed of onset and superior skin clearance sustains differentiation.
- 2024: strong new-start momentum, double-digit class growth
- High market share across psoriasis and axSpA
- Sticky adherence once patients respond
- Key differentiator: rapid onset and skin clearance
GLP-1 leaders fuel demand; oncology/IL-17 champs expand; SGLT2 hits $10B
Mounjaro and Zepbound are Stars: category-defining demand and rapid uptake in T2D/obesity; scale-up and supply are critical. Verzenio and Taltz hold high share in growing oncology and IL‑17 markets but need ongoing evidence and geographic expansion. Jardiance remains a durable Star with ~$10B global sales in 2024, driving SGLT2 class growth.
| Product | 2024 signal |
|---|---|
| Mounjaro | Runaway demand, supply focus |
| Zepbound | FDA 11/8/2023; rapid uptake |
| Verzenio | Guideline/adjuvant traction |
| Taltz | Leading share, double‑digit class growth |
| Jardiance | ~$10B sales |
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Cash Cows
Trulicity (dulaglutide)
Trulicity (dulaglutide) remains a cash cow for Eli Lilly with 2024 global sales around $6.6 billion, reflecting a large installed base and strong brand recognition. Growth has slowed as prescribers migrate to next‑gen incretins, but it still throws off meaningful cash and supports margins. Minimal promotion beyond retention and access is required; milk while carefully managing formulary erosion and lifecycle defense.
Humalog/Humulin — legacy insulins
Humalog/Humulin are mature, price‑pressured legacy insulins but deliver reliable volume supported by global diabetes prevalence (IDF >537 million adults, 2021) and remain stable cash contributors with limited upside. The Medicare Part D insulin cap of $35/month (effective 2023) sustains pricing pressure into 2024. Operational efficiency—manufacturing optimization and noise minimization—drives margin improvement more than promotion.
Basaglar/Rezvoglar (insulin glargine)
Basaglar and Rezvoglar anchor Lilly’s insulin glargine biosimilar presence in a mature, low-growth basal insulin basin, delivering predictable, payer-driven volumes tied to formulary placement.
Lean manufacturing and tight SG&A control convert steady unit demand into cash generation rather than growth spend.
Priority: defend formulary wins, optimize rebate economics, and let the product run as a margin-preserving cash cow.
Olumiant (baricitinib)
Olumiant (baricitinib) sits as a cash cow for Eli Lilly with mixed indications across rheumatoid arthritis and dermatology, supporting a stable base in a mature JAK inhibitor class; 2024 net sales reported around $3.4 billion, reflecting limited growth but steady recurring revenue and low incremental investment needs, so Lilly appears to be harvesting while monitoring class dynamics and regulatory/competitive shifts.
- Mixed indications: RA, dermatology
- 2024 sales: ≈ $3.4B
- Low incremental CAPEX; stable cash flow
- Strategy: harvest; monitor class/regs
Emgality (galcanezumab) — Migraine
Emgality (galcanezumab) remains a well-known migraine CGRP monoclonal antibody with steady refill dynamics in a crowded field; market growth began moderating by 2024 but Emgality’s share has stayed reasonably durable. Promotion can be targeted rather than broad, supporting high unit margins and disciplined commercial spend, making it a classic Eli Lilly cash cow.
- Approved 2018
- Competes vs Aimovig, Ajovy, Vyepti
- Steady refills, moderated market growth (2024)
- Focused promotion, strong margin profile
Protect formularies, optimize rebates, defend $6.6B and $3.4B cash cows and insulin revenue
Trulicity ($6.6B 2024) and Olumiant ($3.4B 2024) are primary cash cows, yielding steady margins despite slowed growth. Legacy insulins (Humalog/Humulin) and Basaglar/Rezvoglar provide predictable volumes under pricing pressure. Emgality sustains refill revenue with targeted promotion. Focus: defend formularies, optimize rebates, minimize incremental investment.
| Product | 2024 sales | Role | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trulicity | $6.6B | Cash cow | Installed base, retention focus |
| Olumiant | $3.4B | Cash cow | Stable RA/derm revenue |
| Insulins | — | Cash cow | Volume, price pressure |
| Emgality | — | Cash cow | Durable refills |
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Dogs
Alimta (pemetrexed)
Alimta (pemetrexed) has seen its patent-protected position eroded by generic entrants, and by 2024 those headwinds have materially lowered pricing and demand. Revenues are drifting while incremental investment yields poor payback, leaving cash tied up with low ROI. Given portfolio priorities at Eli Lilly, Alimta is a prime candidate for continued trimming and redeployment of capital.
Legacy COVID antibodies
Dogs: Legacy COVID antibodies — clinical utility has sunset as variants displaced activity; U.S. government procurement largely ended after 2022 and by 2024 sales were negligible, providing minimal revenue while residual manufacturing and regulatory complexity persists. No turnaround story here; exit costs have been pared and resources refocused on higher-growth franchises.
Cymbalta (duloxetine)
Cymbalta (duloxetine) went off‑patent in the US with generic entry after 2013 and by 2024 is generically available worldwide, leaving only a residual sales tail. It holds little to no strategic value for Eli Lilly’s growth agenda and should be treated as a low‑priority BCG dog. It can consume disproportionate management attention if not kept lean; deprioritize marketing and minimize fixed costs.
Zyprexa (olanzapine)
Zyprexa (olanzapine) lost primary US patent protection in 2011 and faces widespread generic olanzapine competition; sales have sharply declined and it no longer functions as a growth platform for Eli Lilly. Given low margins and overhead, it is break-even at best; strategy: maintain minimal regulatory and safety compliance and reallocate resources.
- Patent expiry: 2011
- Generics: widespread since post-2011
- Financial stance: low-margin, decline
- Action: minimal compliance, de-prioritize
Evista/Forteo and other long-tail brands
Evista/Forteo and other long-tail Lilly brands are fragmented, low-growth, low-share leftovers that together represent a low single-digit percent of Eli Lillys 2024 revenue; the osteoporosis and niche endocrinology segments grew below 3% in 2024. Overmanaging these assets creates operational drag and margin erosion; maintain reliable supply and minimal marketing spend. Divest when market bids reflect strategic value, not sentiment.
- Fragmented, low-share
- Sub-3% segment growth (2024)
- Low single-digit percent of Lilly 2024 revenue
- Keep supply reliable, limit Ops
- Divest when price is right
Trim legacy drugs in 2024: minimize spend, maintain compliance, redeploy capital
Dogs (Alimta, legacy COVID mAbs, Cymbalta, Zyprexa, Evista/Forteo) are low-share, low-growth in 2024; combined ~low-single-digit percent of Eli Lilly 2024 revenue and segment growth <3% in 2024. Sales/price pressure from generics and variant displacement left revenues negligible or declining by 2024. Strategy: minimize spend, maintain compliance, redeploy capital to growth franchises.
| Asset | 2024 status | Revenue impact | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alimta | Generic erosion | Declining | Trim/redeploy |
| COVID mAbs | Clinical utility sunset | Negligible by 2024 | Exit/reduce |
| Cymbalta | Generic worldwide | Residual tail | Minimize ops |
| Zyprexa | Generic competition | Low-margin | Maintain compliance |
Question Marks
Kisunla (donanemab) — Alzheimer’s
Kisunla (donanemab) sits in Question Marks: a high-growth Alzheimer’s market with massive unmet need—about 6.7 million Americans living with Alzheimer’s (Alzheimer’s Association, 2023) and FDA approval in January 2024. Early share is constrained by required amyloid confirmation (PET/CSF), limited infusion capacity and complex payer navigation. Launch and infrastructure costs burn cash before revenue accrues. Invest selectively to scale diagnostics, infusion sites and payer strategy to push toward Star status.
Omvoh (mirikizumab) — Ulcerative colitis
Omvoh (mirikizumab) received FDA approval in March 2024 for moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis after phase 3 trials demonstrated statistically significant induction remission at week 12 and durable maintenance through week 52.
The drug launches into a crowded biologic class (anti-TNFs, anti-integrins, anti-ILs) where initial share will hinge on rapid clinician adoption and payer access wins.
Priority: spend selectively on clear differentiation and generate real-world evidence to accelerate uptake and justify formulary placement.
Retevmo (selpercatinib) — RET-driven cancers
Retevmo (selpercatinib) shows compelling efficacy in RET-driven cancers and was FDA-approved May 8, 2020, for RET fusion-positive NSCLC and RET-mutant medullary thyroid cancer. RET fusions occur in roughly 1–2% of NSCLC and RET alterations appear in ~10–20% of thyroid cancers, so the target niche is small but clinically meaningful. Market share remains modest yet defensible if precision-dx and global expansion continue. Backing is warranted where testing infrastructure is maturing.
Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) — BTK inhibitor
Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) shows an attractive efficacy and tolerability profile in heavily pretreated B‑cell populations, with pivotal BRUIN data showing meaningful responses in prior BTK‑exposed patients (ORR ~57% in mantle cell/CLL cohorts reported 2023–24).
Competitive landscape is noisy with multiple covalent and noncovalent BTK rivals and CD20/BTK combos accelerating, pressuring uptake.
Early commercial traction lags potential—2024 US sales reported by Lilly remained modest—focus should be on label expansions and KOL momentum to drive uptake.
- Tag: profile — ORR ~57% (BRUIN, 2023–24)
- Tag: competition — multiple BTK competitors intensified 2024
- Tag: revenue — early 2024 US sales modest vs addressable market
- Tag: strategy — prioritize label expansions and KOL engagement
Ebglyss (lebrikizumab) — Atopic dermatitis
Ebglyss (lebrikizumab) enters atopic dermatitis as a strong clinical package but a late entrant against incumbents dupilumab and tralokinumab; US adult AD prevalence ~7% (CDC). It needs rapid payer traction and clear positioning vs incumbents, with focused spend to win step-edits and patient starts; if uptake lags, reassess burn quickly.
- Late entrant vs dupilumab/tralokinumab
- Strong clinical data
- Requires payer wins and clear positioning
- Spend to drive step-edit approvals and starts
- Stop-loss: reassess burn if uptake underperforms
Approvals show promise, but diagnostics, infusion capacity and payers cap uptake
Lilly Question Marks: high-growth indications with approvals (Kisunla Jan 2024, Omvoh Mar 2024) but constrained uptake by diagnostics, infusion capacity, payer access and crowded classes; selective investment in diagnostics, infusion sites, RWE and payer strategy to drive scale or cut losses.
| Asset | Indication | 2024 status | Metric | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kisunla | Alzheimer’s | FDA Jan 2024 | 6.7M US pts (2023) | Scale diagnostics/infusion |
| Omvoh | UC | FDA Mar 2024 | Class crowding | RWE/payer wins |
| Retevmo | RET+ tumors | On market | RET fusions ~1–2% NSCLC | Expand testing |
| Jaypirca | B‑cell malignancies | Early sales 2024 modest | ORR ~57% | Label/KOL |
| Ebglyss | Atopic dermatitis | Late entrant | US adult AD ~7% | Payer/positioning |